The results of the tourist season 2017
The main mood of the 2017 season is the return of tourists to the tourist market and their desire to part with the funds for recreation, but in 2018 this process may stop. This forecast was voiced by Maya Lomidze, Executive Director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR). According to experts, this season the growth of outbound flow will reach 20-22%, and in 2018, in the best case scenario, demand will increase by no more than 15%.
Lomidze: There was a significant trend in the inbound segment, with an increase of 20-22% by 2016. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that in 2016 the tourist flow already had a tendency to grow, compared to 2015, the increase in certain destinations reaches 50%.
Restoration of tourist relations with Turkey is one direction that improved the results of 2014: more than 4 million travelers from Russia visited the resorts. With the return of Turkey, a trend has emerged, according to which demand for 4-5* hotels has increased. This result was influenced by Turkish “very good” prices for Russians. But in general, the share of orders for additional excursions to the sights of Turkey and other services increased, which was not the case in previous years, when tourists preferred “treshki” and saved.
The price factor remains important for the market – there has been a slowdown in the dynamics of domestic tourism. In fact, there is an increase only in Sochi, in other areas – a slight minus. The price factor was not in last place here, as we predicted, in early summer prices caused a serious decline in demand, as a result, in the middle of summer, hotels began to reduce them, Lomidze said.
Forecasts for 2018: there will be growth on outbound destinations, but the dynamics will decrease. “Demand will be affected by the situation in Egypt. So far, it can be predicted that if Egypt is opened by the summer season, in May-June, the growth in other directions will be 10%, part of the tourist flow will be redistributed to Egypt. If the opening is delayed until the end of summer, the increase will be 12-15%, and there will be a significant redistribution of demand for the winter season. Domestic transportation is expected to stagnate.
Lomidze expects stagnation and a decrease in the number of travel agencies, because there is no growth in the domestic market and serious competition.
In 2018, transportation difficulties are permissible. “This year, for the first time, we faced the problem of charters to domestic resorts. In the coming season, the regulation of charters and the shortage of boards will also determine the summer season, Lomidze said.
The main problems can occur in the summer, during this period up to 75% of bookings. Lomidze believes that situations similar to the problems of VIM-avia can be avoided, but the average cost of the tour will increase.
Photo: tourprom