The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has identified three scenarios for tourism recovery
The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) expects that the number of international tourist trips in 2020 will decrease from 60% to 80% in annual terms.
Experts believe that the tourism sector in the Asia-Pacific region will be the first to recover, and the states of the Americas will be the last to recover.
According to UNWTO, in the first quarter of 2020, the number of international tourist trips compared to the same period in 2019 decreased by 22%.
In March 2020, due to restrictions on foreign travel, the closure of airports and borders, 67 million fewer people traveled around the world than in March 2019 (-57%). The loss of the global tourism sector during this time is estimated at $ 80 billion.
By the end of 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the number of travelers may decrease from 60% to 80%.
The World Tourism Organization identifies three scenarios for the development of the industry in 2020.
According to the first scenario, if the borders are gradually opened in July, the number of international trips by the end of 2020 will fall by 58% compared to 2019.
According to the second scenario, if foreign travel begins to recover from September, the number of trips around the world in annual terms will fall by 70%.
The third scenario implies the opening of most borders from December 2020: the total international tourist flow will fall by 78% compared to the 2019 figure.
Under these scenarios, in 2020, the number of international trips relative to 2019 could fall from 850 million to 1.1 billion. The global tourism sector will lose between $910 billion and $1.2 trillion.
The global tourism industry could lose between 100 million and 120 million direct jobs.
“This is by far the worst crisis facing international tourism since the 50s of the last century,” UNWTO said.
According to UNWTO forecasts, domestic travel demand will recover faster than international travel.
Most countries expect to see signs of a recovery in demand for overseas travel in the final quarter of 2020, but the main hopes are pinned on 2021.
“Based on previous crises, the tourism and travel sector should recover faster. Travel to visit friends and relatives will grow more intensively than business travel.”
Source: atorus